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Threatcasting is a conceptual framework used to help multidisciplinary groups envision future scenarios. It is also a process that makes it possible for the future. Utilizing the threatcasting process, groups explore possible future threats and how to transform the future. Threatcasting is a continuous, multiple-step process with inputs from social science, technical research, cultural history, economics, trends, expert interviews, and science fiction storytelling. These inputs inform the exploration of potential visions of the future.

Once inputs are explored for impact and application, participants create a science fiction story ( Science Fiction Prototyping) based on the years in the future. Science Fiction Prototyping is a story about a person doing a thing. The threatcasting process results in the creation of many potential future scenarios Identifying both types of future and desirable to avoid. Utilizing the scenarios, participants plot actions necessary in the present and at various intervals working towards the ten year future scenario. These actions will help participants understand how to empower the future scenario. Flags (warning events) are also determined in the context of a corporate approach to the future.


See also: Science fiction prototyping

The notion of threatcasting can be traced back to Brian David Johnson, an applied futureist, who first started using threatcasting, also referred to as futurecasting, in 2011. Early adopters of threatcasting include the United States Air Force Academy , the Government of California , and the Army Cyber ​​Institute at West Point Military Academy . Brian David Johnson in a 2014 Gazette article “Drones, smart hydrants considered by experts looking at the future of firefighting.” [1]

Differences between Threatcasting and Strategic Planning

Threatcasting is fundamentally different from traditional strategic planning and scenario building processes, and can be taken to mitigate and recover from future threats.


The Army Cyber ​​Institute at West Point in conjunction with Arizona State University’s Global Securities Initiative and the School for the Future of Cyber ​​Threatcasting Project future. The first session of this collaborative group was held at West Point, NY in August 2016.

See also

  • Accelerating Change
  • backcasting
  • Environmental Scanning
  • Forecasting
  • Foresight
  • Futures Studies
  • Technical Futures
  • Outline of future studies
  • Scenario Analysis
  • Scenario Planning
  • Strategic Foresight
  • Systems Thinking
  • Technology Roadmapping
  • Technology Forecasting
  • Trend Analysis


  • Knapp, Alex. Brian David Johnson: Intel’s Guide to the Future. Forbes, October 13, 2011. [2]
  • US Air Force Academy Public Affairs. ‘Future-casting’ wildfires. United States Air Force Academy. February 7, 2014.
  • Roeder, Tom. Drones, smart hydrants considered by experts looking at the future of firefighting. The Gazette, February 21, 2014. [1]
  • Johnson, Brian David. Futurecasting, The Future of Wildfire. [3]
  • #innovateearthquakes! FIT’s day of technology innovation for disaster management. September 5, 2015. [4]
  • Ryan, Lee. “Threatcasting”. IEEE Computer, vol. 49, no., Pp. 94-95, Oct. 2016, doi: 10.1109 / MC.2016.305.
  • Bennett, Michael and Johnson, Brian David. Dark Future Precedents. [5]
  • Science Fiction, Futurism and Law. Intelligent Environments 2016. doi: 10.3233 / 978-1-61499-690-3-506
  • Petrov, Jan. Shmoocon 2017: Threat-Casting, Fake News, and Ransomware. Kraft Kennedy. February 6, 2017.
  • Johnson, Brian David. A Widening Attach Plain. Army Cyber ​​Institute. February, 2017


  1. ^ Jump up to:b “Drones, smart hydrants regarded by experts looking at future of firefighting” . Colorado Springs Gazette . Retrieved 2017-02-21 .
  2. Jump up^ Knapp, Alex. “Brian David Johnson: Intel’s Guide to the Future” . Forbes . Retrieved 2017-02-21 .
  3. Jump up^ “Futurecasting | The Field Innovation Team” . fieldinnovationteam.org . Retrieved 2017-02-21 .
  4. Jump up^ “The Field Innovation Team” . www.fieldinnovationteam.org . Retrieved 2017-02-21 .
  5. Jump up^ http://www.creative-science.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2016_CS16DarkFuturePrecedentswithHeaders.pdf